Welcome to a special fall preview edition of The Point! Below, we have outlined the five biggest storylines that will shape the political landscape heading into the midterm elections -- which are now less than 10 weeks away.
After this, we are resuming our summer break and will be back in your inboxes on Tuesday, September 6. Thank you for reading!
1. Will Biden get a polling bump? After his job approval rating sunk below 40%, there have been signs President Joe Biden's standing with the public is starting to (marginally) improve. For instance, Gallup's latest poll showed that 44% of Americans approved of his job performance, up from 38% in July and his highest mark in a year. This came after the White House and congressional Democrats were finally able to put together a string of legislative victories, capped by the signing of a major climate, health care and tax bill into law.
Biden's numbers remain well under water, but any sort of uptick would be the surest way to lift Democratic fortunes heading into November -- and put the President on firmer ground as he looks ahead to his reelection bid.
2. What direction will the economy go in? One of the biggest factors tied to Biden's approval in the coming weeks and months will be the state of the economy. While both metrics remain high, gas prices continue to drop nationally and the latest Consumer Price Index suggests inflation is starting to cool. Amid fears of a recession, the most recent jobs report was unexpectedly strong.
What these figures look like in September and October go a long way toward shaping overall perceptions of the economy, which remains the top issue on voters' minds, heading into Election Day.
3. How far can the abortion ruling backlash take Democrats? Democrats have undoubtedly received a boost in the wake of the Supreme Court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. As the issue became a focal point of the party's messaging and rose up voters' priority list, Democratic candidates outperformed Biden's 2020 vote share in four special House elections while abortion rights proponents won convincingly on a constitutional amendment in Kansas.
Republicans are now on the defensive, with nominees in key races across the country attempting to shift their conservative abortion stances with the general election approaching. The emergence of the issue has given Democrats hope they can salvage their majority in the Senate and, at the very least, stem their losses in the House.
4. How much of an anchor will Trump be for Republicans? Former President Donald Trump's mounting legal woes, headlined by the FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago, are increasingly overshadowing Republican efforts to keep the emphasis on Biden and the economy heading into November.
While Trump's endorsement was a coveted one in Republican primaries this year given his continued hold over the party base, he remains toxic with the broader electorate: a recent NBC News poll showed his favorability rating among registered voters was in worse shape than Biden's. Midterm elections are usually about the current president, not the former one. But with Trump front and center once again, as well as the prominence of abortion, Democrats may be able to make the 2022 election a choice rather than a referendum.
5. What else will the January 6 committee uncover? Along those lines, Trump's role in the attack at the US Capitol last year will also soon be back in the spotlight. After holding eight public hearings over the summer, the House select committee investigating January 6 plans to resume those hearings in September and is expected to release a final report this fall, all of which will help to paint an even clearer picture of how the insurrection unfolded.
The revival of activity from the panel, regardless of the specific findings, will return focus to Trump's falsehoods that the 2020 presidential election was stolen -- and the candidates on the ballot in November who echo those claims.
-- Adam
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