The Point: Democrats are staring down an electoral catastrophe

février 28, 2022

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February 28, 2022 | by Chris Cillizza and Shania Shelton

Democrats are staring down an electoral catastrophe

If the election were held today, Democrats would not only lose control of the House, but suffer massive losses in their ranks.

That's the conclusion that should be drawn from new ABC News/Washington Post polling that shows a generic Republican candidate leading a generic Democratic one by a 49% to 42% margin among registered voters nationally. (That gap expands to 13 points when you limit the sample to registered voters who say they are "certain" to vote.)

That's known as the generic ballot test. For decades, it's been a reliable weathervane as to which way -- and how hard -- the partisan winds are blowing.

And what the ABC/Post poll makes clear is that the wind is blowing against the Democrats -- and hard.

How bad is it for Democrats? Consider where the generic ballot stood in ABC/Post polling taken just before other recent midterm elections:

2018: D+7 on generic ballot (Democrats won a net of 40 House seats)

2014: D+3 (Democrats lost a net of 13 seats)

2010: D+5 (Democrats lost a net of 64 seats)

2006: D+13 (Democrats won a net of 31 seats)

What's clear is that when the Democratic edge is five points or less on the generic ballot, the party has experienced major seat losses in midterm elections.

Now consider what the House playing field might look like with a Republican edge of seven points on the generic ballot. (Among independent voters, largely considered the swing votes in elections, Republicans have a 14-point edge on the generic ballot in the latest ABC/Post poll.)

Like I said: Catastrophic.

Now, the counter-argument goes like this:

1) It's February 2022, not November 2022.

2) Redistricting across the country has severely constricted the number of competitive seats between the two parties.

3) After Republicans gained a net of 12 House seats in 2020, there is less low-hanging fruit out there.

All true! And it still might not matter.

The Point: Political waves tend to wash away members of Congress who looked safe and sound just a few months earlier. And if the generic ballot stays anywhere close to where it is today, Democrats could be facing a historically large wave.

-- Chris

TRIVIA TIME!

Which president said he was "the jinx of the links"? (Answer below!)

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"There's no place in the Republican Party for white supremacists or anti-Semitism."

-- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said Monday, in response to two House Republicans' appearance at a white nationalist conference.

MONDAY ON THE SOCIALS

1. Gas prices keep going ⬆️

2. DeSantis is #2!

3. Mitt gets frank on Russia

4. No more masks at the White House

5. Gigi Buffon rules

CHRIS' GOOD READS

How is the West trying to win the war against Russia? By taking aim at the country's currency, the New York Times reports.

The war isn't working out how Russia had hoped, according to the Washington Post.

"The Grim Stagecraft of Zelensky's Selfie Videos," via The Atlantic.

Politico's John Harris says Democrats need to take a chill pill on Biden. All is not lost, if recent history is any guide.

The New York Times is right: The real loser in the decennial redrawing of the country's congressional districts is competitiveness.

Is "The Batman" any good? The Hollywood Reporter has the answer.

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

I am an unapologetic fan boy of Fort Frances. They should be WAY better known than they are. The first single from their forthcoming album is "If You Look Hard Enough."

-- Chris

TEXAS PRIMARY WATCH

Voting will come to a close tomorrow evening in Texas, which is hosting the first primary races of the 2022 election cycle. CNN's Rachel Janfaza, Ethan Cohen and Melissa DePalo outline three key races to watch.

Governor: Seven Republicans are trying to oust Gov. Greg Abbott, while former Rep. Beto O'Rourke is the favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

Attorney General: Incumbent Ken Paxton faces three notable Republican challengers -- Rep. Louie Gohmert, Texas Land Commissioner George P. Bush and former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman.

28th Congressional District: Progressive immigration attorney Jessica Cisneros is challenging Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar.

Texans are also dealing with new election law changes, including limited early voting hours and increased mail-in voting, as CNN's Kelly Mena, Tami Luhby and Heather Fulbright illustrate.

Polls will open at 7 a.m. and close at 7 p.m. local time for Texas voters.

-- Shania

ONE GROWING NUMBER

Rep. Ted Deutch of Florida became the 31st House Democrat to announce they would not seek re-election this year.

TRIVIA TIME ANSWER

Gerald Ford was a notoriously bad -- and self-effacing -- golfer. "Gerry Ford is easy to spot on the course," legendary comedian Bob Hope said of the president. "He drives the cart with the red cross painted on top."