The Point: The one number that should worry every Democrat in Virginia

View this email in your browser   October 29, 2021  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski A number that should worry every Democrat in Virginia Just days before the crucial Virginia governor's election, there appears to be a passion gap between the parties that should worry every Democrat looking at the race as a harbinger of things to come in 2022.   The top-line numbers in a new Washington Post-Schar School poll suggest that the race between former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) and businessman Glenn Youngkin (R) is a toss-up. McAulliffe is at 49% to Youngkin's 48% among likely voters.   But dig into the numbers a bit and you find something concerning for Democrats.   Overall, 46% of likely voters approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as President, while 53% disapprove. Which isn't terrible -- although both Biden and McAuliffe would prefer if those numbers were reversed.   The problem becomes more apparent when you look at those who "strongly" approve of Biden's performance in office and, conversely, those who "strongly" disapprove of how he's done.   Biden's strong approval number is 21%. His strong disapproval number? 44%. That's more than double because, well, math.   What those "strong" numbers generally indicate is base engagement and enthusiasm. And what those numbers, in particular, tell us is that Republicans are far more motivated at the moment than Democrats.   That base enthusiasm disparity may not be determinative on Tuesday.  Virginia is now a state that clearly leans toward Democrats in anything close to a neutral political environment, and that makes McAuliffe a narrow favorite ahead of the vote.   But if Youngkin wins, the passion delta between the GOP base and the Democratic one will likely be the reason. The Point: In a close race, energy and enthusiasm matter. And it appears Republicans have the edge on that front headed into the final weekend of the contest.   -- Chris QUOTE OF THE DAY "Now the tradition is -- I'm only kidding about this -- the next time I see you, if you don't have it you have to buy the drinks." -- President Biden to Pope Francis, handing the Pope a deeply personal challenge coin during his trip to the Vatican on Friday, marking the gift with a moment of lightheartedness that nods to a long tradition in the US military. FRIDAY'S MUST-SEE TWEETS 1.  It's Trump's party. Period. 2. The Biden shadow 3. This is the best Meta tweet 4. There's a bunch of good Twitter follows in this 🧵 5. Bobby Valentine, going for it CHRIS' GOOD READS This piece by The Washington Post's Aaron Blake asks the exact right question: How worried should Democrats be about the Virginia governor's race?   I read everything Jonathan V. Last writes -- and you should too. His latest is on Adam Kinzinger, the latest victim of the Trump purge within the GOP.   I really can't believe that the "tomahawk chop" is still a thing. The Washington Post has a story explaining why it's persisted. This sounds like an awesome road trip, via Bloomberg.   As a collector of baseball and basketball cards, I found this New York Times story on a single, signed Luka Doncic card RIGHT up my alley.   Mozzarella sticks have always been a winner. ALWAYS. MUSICAL INTERLUDE "New Adventures in Hi-Fi" -- a criminally underrated R.E.M. album -- turns 25 this year. The band is celebrating the anniversary with a reissue that includes tons of unreleased tracks and outtakes.   -- Chris THE WEEK IN 13 HEADLINES This week, Democrats on Capitol Hill scrambled to achieve consensus on key pieces of President Biden's agenda as he headed to Europe for a series of summits with key leaders. Meanwhile, a Republican Trump critic announced he won't seek reelection in Congress.    Monday Democrats drive toward a scaled back $1.75 trillion spending agreement Lower premiums, more choices on Obamacare exchanges for 2022 as Democrats battle to extend generous subsidies Biden pitches spending plans in New Jersey ahead of key week for Hill negotiations Tuesday Facebook revelations add new momentum to efforts to rein in Big Tech Tight race for Virginia governor enters final week with national implications on the line  At least five former Trump White House staffers are talking to the House January 6 committee  Wednesday There won't be a White House Halloween celebration this year Paid leave falls out of Democratic package in urgent scramble to secure Manchin's support Thursday Biden heads to Europe with his economic agenda -- and his presidency -- in the balance back home Complaint alleging a sex crime has been filed against former NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo Friday 'God love ya': Warm relationship between the world's most powerful Catholics on display as Biden and Pope Francis meet Adam Kinzinger, outspoken GOP Trump critic, won't seek reelection for US House seat Families forcibly separated at the border by the Trump administration seeking settlements in ongoing negotiations ONE BIG THANK YOU 👏 To Leigh Munsil, editor of The Point from the very beginning. She is taking her talents to San Antonio to be the new editor in chief of the hyperlocal nonprofit San Antonio Report (starting Monday!). We are sad to see her go but can't wait to follow her new newsroom's essential work. Thanks for everything, Leigh! You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Unsubscribe from this list Check out other CNN Newsletters Create your CNN Account Share the Point Newsletter Was this email forwarded to you? 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