The Point: Here's *exactly* how Democrats win the Senate

View this email in your browser   August 31, 2020  | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski Here's *exactly* how Democrats win the Senate On Monday, CNN debuted our list of the 10 Senate seats most likely to switch parties on November 3. The numbers paint a stark picture for Republicans. Of the 10 most vulnerable Senate seats, they are defending eight of them -- including four of the five seats considered by CNN most likely to switch sides this fall.   They also provide a very clear road map for how, exactly, Democrats hope to retake the Senate majority.     Start here: If Joe Biden wins in November, Democrats need to net three GOP seats to ensure majority status. If Biden loses, Democrats need four seats.   Then consider that Democratic Sen. Doug Jones of Alabama, the No. 1 ranked senator most likely to lose by CNN, is sitting in a state that President Donald Trump won by 28 points in 2016. Even if Trump wins by just half that margin this time around, it's a hugely steep hill for Jones to climb.   So let's, for the sake of argument, assume that Republican and former Auburn football coach Tommy Tuberville beats Jones. That means Democrats need to net four seats if Biden wins the White House and five if he doesn't. The first two Republican seats are obvious. In Arizona and Colorado, Sens. Martha McSally and Cory Gardner, respectively, have been trailing their Democratic opponents for months. And Trump is actively hurting both of them at the top of the ticket.   The next two are more difficult -- but still, if the vote happened today, likely to fall for Democrats.    Sen. Thom Tillis (R) of North Carolina has failed to define himself as much other than a reliable Trump vote in his first term and most polling suggests that former state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) is ahead.   In Maine, Sen. Susan Collins' (R) vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has stripped off the nonpartisan veneer that was the key to her having held the seat since 1996. It also doesn't help Collins that former state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D) is the strongest challenger she's faced in her Senate career.   If Democrats win those four seats -- and Biden wins the White House -- they have the majority. It's that simple. (Worth noting: Biden is ahead of Trump by 9 points in CNN's poll of polls.)    If Biden loses (and Jones loses), then Democrats need to net five Republican seats. Luckily for them, they've got a bunch of options. Polling in Iowa, Georgia and Montana suggests that Democratic challengers to GOP incumbents are within a few points -- at worst.   Then there are longer-but-not-long-shot races against Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Kelly Loeffler (R-Georgia), as well as the open seat contest in Kansas.   All told, Democrats have 10 GOP-held seats where they can make a reasonable case they could win. And if they win half of those, they've got the majority no matter what happens between Trump and Biden at the top of the ticket.   The Point: There's no guarantee that Democrats win the majority this fall. But the path to get there is both clear and decidedly plausible.   -- Chris QUOTE OF THE DAY "Do you really feel safer under Donald Trump?" -- Joe Biden delivered a blistering condemnation of Trump from Pittsburgh, calling him a "toxic presence" in the US. The Trump campaign responded with "You won't be safe in Joe Biden's America." Herd immunity Why we're talking about it:   One of President Trump's new advisers, Dr. Scott Atlas, has been an extensive critic of severe shutdowns, and a Washington Post story said Atlas is pushing the White House to pursue a controversial "herd immunity" strategy.   Atlas responded by calling the Post story "irresponsible" and explicitly denied that he is urging herd immunity. However, an administration official told CNN that all of the policies Atlas has pushed for are in the vein of a herd immunity strategy.   This weekend, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, argued against pursuing Sweden's herd immunity-based coronavirus response in the US. "Holding up Sweden as an enlightened model misreads important parts of its experience," Gottlieb wrote in an op-ed for The Wall Street Journal on Sunday. Sweden has been seen as an outlier in the way it has handled the pandemic because of its seemingly relaxed approach, which imposed only light restrictions on daily life compared with other European nations. Sweden, however, has a much lower population density than all of these Covid-19 hot spots.    "Confronting a dangerous pandemic requires containing spread wherever it is reasonably possible," Gottlieb wrote. "Sensible measures such as universal masking, testing and widespread and rapid contact tracing can help. The best way to protect the vulnerable is to try to protect everyone."   What it means:   Herd immunity is reached when a majority of a population (70% to 90%) becomes immune to a disease either through infection and recovery or vaccination. When that happens, the disease is less likely to spread to people who aren't immune -- because there just aren't enough infectious carriers to reach them.   If the United States allowed coronavirus infections to achieve possible herd immunity, the death toll would be massive. Two million Americans could die in the effort to achieve herd immunity to coronavirus, emergency physician and CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Leana Wen said Monday. CHRIS' GOOD READS The military prefers Biden   The monkey shortage (and why it matters)   Welcome the Covid Influencer Driving through a state fair   On Andrew Sullivan   Chadwick Boseman, RIP   RIP, Big John MUSICAL INTERLUDE Josh Ritter is one of Chris' favorite artists. So when he -- Josh, not Chris -- releases music, it's a celebration in Point world. Josh's new one of rare and unreleased tracks is called "See Here, I Have Built You a Mansion." Today's episode: Why Trump is doubling down on "riots."  LAUREN'S CAMPAIGN TRAIL LATEST     Biden denounces violence: Joe Biden condemned violence, looting and property destruction during protests over racial injustice and police brutality in a speech on Monday from Pittsburgh. Biden also said President Donald Trump's refusal to call on his own supporters to "stop acting as an armed militia in this country shows how weak he is."   Trump to Kenosha: President Donald Trump is headed to Kenosha, Wisconsin, on Tuesday to meet with law enforcement and survey damage in the city, despite Democratic Gov. Tony Evers asking him not to come. Trump has no plans to meet with the family of James Blake, the Black man paralyzed after being shot by the police last week, which kicked off at-times violent racial unrest.    West makes the ballot in two more states: Entrepreneur and rapper Kanye West has made the presidential general election ballot in two more states: Iowa and Virginia. West will appear on 11 states' ballots in November. The math still doesn't add up: If you combine the states where West is currently on the ballot, under review, and where the deadline is coming up, it would amount to only 119 Electoral College votes -- still 151 votes short of the 270 needed to win the presidency. ONE BIG PANDEMIC 6 million The US has now surpassed 6 million cases of coronavirus, according to the latest tally from Johns Hopkins University. You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Unsubscribe from this list Check out other CNN Newsletters Create your CNN Account Share the Point Newsletter Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get The Point in your inbox.   Send your tips and thoughts via email to Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski. 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